# The Balance Of Probabilities

Last updated on March 14th, 2019 at 02:26 pm

Reading Time: 4 minutes

Balance of probabilities is the standard of proof required in all civil cases (and Disciplinary Hearings). It basically means that to win you need to convince the judge/Chairperson that your case is 51% likely to be true. i.e. your story only has to be slightly more plausible than the other side’s story.

This can be contrasted with a criminal case where the standard is beyond reasonable doubt, which is very near to 100% certainty before the defendant can be found guilty.

What the hell is he blathering on about? I hear you ask.

Well he’s blathering on about Ex PC James Patrick’s series of ‘Cathartic Blogs’.  James has had a bit of ‘Unfinished Business’ and he’s now taken the opportunity to dump all that baggage, free himself from the shackles, and hopefully move on, rebuilding the lives of himself and his family.

But allow me to be mischievous for a minute and take a peek at James’ blogs;

The first one was

##### Withholding Evidence From Parliament

In this blog James alleges that a Senior Police Officer Suppressed Evidence On Crime Figures
The Commander of the Directorate of Professional Standards refused permission to present Parliament with evidence of the manipulation of police statistics.  Commander Gibson apparently refused James’ request to appear before the Home Affairs Select Committee to provide evidence of ‘number fudging’.  Why was that do you think?

Next we have

##### Use of Temperature in Interviews

in which James relates how  Met Police Using Degrading Interview Techniques:
The Directorate of Professional Standards are using high temperatures and dishonesty to pressurise police officers under investigation.

“In an interview room on the 21st floor, adjacent to the entrance of the male changing rooms, me and my Federation Representative found ourselves in a box room, where the temperature exceeded 28 degrees.”  “The interviewing officers, a Constable and Sergeant from the Directorate of Professional Standards told me that there was a “heating fault which had been reported”, ”  There is a witness to this, the Federation Representative.

“Later in the year, a family member made a Freedom of Information Act request to the Met police, asking what heating faults had been reported and resolved in that room, a month either side of my interview. The Met responded, after an internal review – first having missed the statutory deadline for reply – stating that no heating faults had been reported or recorded during the entire period. This was confirmed a second time, to my legal representatives, in December 2013.”

I have read the relevant Freedom of Information request, and the Met’s response.  James’ account is accurate, they recorded no heating fault despite the assurances of the DPS officers conducting the interview.

#3 goes like this

##### Deliberately Witheld Disclosure

Police Whistleblower Accused Of Fraud After Discovering Witheld Documents:

Written records of management meetings, which the Met denied had taken place, were discovered and spurious accusations of dishonesty were made by officers involved after the alarm was raised.  The events contained within this blog just left me speechless, a rare occurrence I can assure you.  Did James offer to repay the money at the first opportunity having been asked so to do. Yes!!  Did he commit any wilful, dishonest act in order to bring about this over-payment?  Seemingly not.

#4

##### ‘Pissing Off’ Superiors

Police Officer Put ‘Noses Out Of Joint’ By Exposing Sham Crime Figures:
Crime statistics whistleblower went to Parliament after a meeting in Scotland Yard in which he was told that he risked ‘pissing off’ superiors by continuing to report his concerns about the recording of sexual offences. So James risked pissing off ‘superiors’ by exposing the truth? How does that work then? Surely these so-called ‘superiors’ should be big enough and ugly enough to survive the TRUTH? Wouldn’t you think?

#5

##### Procurement Fraud

Metropolitan Police Covered Up Smartwater Procurement Fraud:
Scotland Yard breached its own procurement procedures yet found itself innocent, while senior officers delivered briefings saying they were covering up potential offences by the force.  With James’ consent I have discussed this with a retired Auditor of some note. He/She more or less agrees with James’ take on the situation and points out that at the very least there is a clear Conflict of Interests, and that it is not the first time that the Met has had similar issues.

Finally;

##### Conflict and Intimidation

Met Police Used Scare Tactics Against Whistleblower And Family:
After he had given evidence to a Parliamentary Select Committee about the manipulation of police crime figures, uniformed officers were sent to the family home to ‘rattle their cages’.  Having lodged grievances against one or more members of the DPS staff, James received this text one day “Can you let me know whether you are both ok and that you have received the email I sent you? James R and I have both tried to call you but got no reply. Simon Laurence has asked me to set up a welfare check to your home address if I don’t hear from you shortly”.

“The Met requested that Essex officers attended my home, stating that they had tried to contact me several times, and were concerned about my welfare as there had been ‘developments’ in my working arrangements which may ‘have caused him some distress’. Uniformed officers, in a marked police vehicle, attended my home at quarter to nine in the evening, while my wife and I were watching television and our children were asleep upstairs”.

My reaction to this is short and blunt.  Please fill the Comments section below with any other instances where an officer facing Disciplinary Proceedings has been ‘fortunate’ enough to receive a Welfare Visit at his Home Address from a neighbouring Force at 9 o’clock in the evening?  Plenty of space available, fill your boots.

So, on the Balance of Probabilities, have the Met been Bang Out Of Order?  Have they pursued a Disciplinary matter diligently, or have they tried to use their power and might to wield the sledgehammer that would crack the walnut?  Don’t forget, Balance of Probabilities, not Beyond A reasonable Doubt.

I find the case proved and order that the Met pays ex PC James Patrick substantial financial compensation.

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### 5 thoughts on “The Balance Of Probabilities”

1. Look go to Google type demenez cop sacked for boy sex claim .you will see the articles in Nov 11 the daily mail and a full page in the sun. Reading the article you can see Comnander Spindlers DPS statement about vigourous pursuit of wrong doing and Commissioner Franklin of the IPCC. We saw the month of arrest and a DCI from Kent Police public protection unit came back under a FOIA request confirming the date of his arrest and the MPS DPS notified as procedure. So to our horror this CI was arrested during the middle of a case where he wascompletely rd most senior named respondent witness. The IPCC DPS MPS legal team refuse to comment. Both MPS Solicitor and Counsel claim they did not know their senior witness was arrested but refuse to comment as did the DPS why they are not screaming down the phone at their witness or the MPS why. We found out 2 months after dismissal for gross misconduct he is allowed to do police consultancy wo r k for HMIC and bizarrely a senior MPS officer wss despite Home Office Guidelines could form a commrcial directorship with him. We also spotted no evidence of any impending sanction as just 4 months before dismissal in Aug 11 he was given by the DAC Territorial Operations teams to look into the London his own website stated he left the MPS after a successful career which he took down after it was made known to the MPS. The MPS
Refused at every opportunity to explain why a senior officer despite a criminal and internal dps investigation supervised by the IPCC a respindant chief inspector managed to somehow incredibly hide his arrest from his own publicly and ladvishly funded lawyers until an unfunded officer spots the news article 17 months later and exposes this to the mets own lawyers.Even after a delegation including ex officers with written warnings from the Federation met Deputy Mayor Greenhalgh asking for an answer to this and ROTI tampering the DPS DCI completely refused to respond. Now this disgraced officer despite Commander Spindlers and Commissioner Franklins statement to the public which never included this sordid fact (which is in contrast to what it leaked about Carol Howards arrest the day after she won her ET) this officer is trying to get back into the Met Police .so you have MPS lawyers who wont ask their cv lient or mps fps why. In July 14 and despite sssurances from Helen Bailey the COO of MOPAC that these matters had been thoroughly investigated and refusal to comment the MPS are letting this disgraced ex officer put a complaint of harresment against the officer who uncovered this arrest..
The DPS are up to their eyeballs as they testfied the bullying and setting up a probationer to take a wriiren warning during a DPS misconduct interview was removed from a ROTI transcript by a trained typist .the answer given to mr Greenhalgh was she was untrained. .the DPS DCI onxe again refused comment. You can see all this if you want

2. Look go to Google type demenez cop sacked for boy sex claim .you will see the articles in Nov 11 the daily mail and a full page in the sun. Reading the article you can see Comnander Spindlers DPS statement about vigourous pursuit of wrong doing and Commissioner Franklin of the IPCC. We saw the month of arrest and a DCI from Kent Police public protection unit came back under a FOIA request confirming the date of his arrest and the MPS DPS notified as procedure. So to our horror this CI was arrested during the middle of a case where he wascompletely rd most senior named respondent witness. The IPCC DPS MPS legal team refuse to comment. Both MPS Solicitor and Counsel claim they did not know their senior witness was arrested but refuse to comment as did the DPS why they are not screaming down the phone at their witness or the MPS why. We found out 2 months after dismissal for gross misconduct he is allowed to do police consultancy wo r k for HMIC and bizarrely a senior MPS officer wss despite Home Office Guidelines could form a commrcial directorship with him. We also spotted no evidence of any impending sanction as just 4 months before dismissal in Aug 11 he was given by the DAC Territorial Operations teams to look into the London his own website stated he left the MPS after a successful career which he took down after it was made known to the MPS. The MPS
Refused at every opportunity to explain why a senior officer despite a criminal and internal dps investigation supervised by the IPCC a respindant chief inspector managed to somehow incredibly hide his arrest from his own publicly and ladvishly funded lawyers until an unfunded officer spots the news article 17 months later and exposes this to the mets own lawyers.Even after a delegation including ex officers with written warnings from the Federation met Deputy Mayor Greenhalgh asking for an answer to this and ROTI tampering the DPS DCI completely refused to respond. Now this disgraced officer despite Commander Spindlers and Commissioner Franklins statement to the public which never included this sordid fact (which is in contrast to what it leaked about Carol Howards arrest the day after she won her ET) this officer is trying to get back into the Met Police .so you have MPS lawyers who wont ask their cv lient or mps fps why. In July 14 and despite sssurances from Helen Bailey the COO of MOPAC that these matters had been thoroughly investigated and refusal to comment the MPS are letting this disgraced ex officer put a complaint of harresment against the officer who uncovered this arrest..
The DPS are up to their eyeballs as they testfied the bullying and setting up a probationer to take a wriiren warning during a DPS misconduct interview was removed from a ROTI transcript by a trained typist .the answer given to mr Greenhalgh was she was untrained. .the DPS DCI onxe again refused comment. You can see all this if you want

3. Yes! The Met is bang out of order, has diligently bastardised a disciplinary matter & has patently succeeded in misusing their power and might to wield a sledgehammer to crack a peanut.

The balance of probabilities not only comes out clearly in favour of the motion, but their guilt is completely above & beyond any conceivable doubt.

We find the case proved conclusively and order that the Met pays ex PC James Patrick substantial ex gratia financial compensation – and that parliament, ombudsmen & the public must all now insist the Met coughs up until they choke on their own casual bullying lying phlegm..

In other words, you’re bloody well Wright – yet again.

1. This Met that we have today has nothing in common with the Force I was proud to be a part of for 30 years. I do not designed it, and their heavy handed, bullying treatment of James and others does them no credit and should be stamped out by higher Management immediately. Maybe a Vote of No Confidence in Bernie and Bozo is a good place to start