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Category: Priti Patel

Police Uplift Programme September 2021 – An Open Response To Priti Patel

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Today the government published the latest update on the Police Uplift Programme. An update that had the Home Secretary, Priti Patel MP, proudly tweeting how successful it was. This is how she broke the news

https://twitter.com/pritipatel/status/1453290523960266758
Police Uplift Programme September 2021

“We’re delivering on our promise to the British people to recruit 20,000 additional police.

Really? Firstly the wording has changed from Extra to Additional. People will make what they want of that, but was the change necessary?

Your Tweet proudly boasts that you have recruited 11,053 additional officers since the scheme commenced, I believe, in April 2020. Prior to the inception of this scheme recruitment was averaging out at 7,000-9,000 per annum. To produce 20,000 additional officers over the 3 year term of the programme would result in a total increase in strength of 3 x 8,000 (24,000) plus your 20,000, equalling 44,000. Dr Emma Williams in an Open University report has stated 50,000 so we can we settle on a round number of 45,000 then?

At 31st March 2020, immediately prior to this scheme commencing, the 43 Forces of England and Wales had a total strength of 124,253. Add 45,000 to that and the new target for March 2023 becomes, rounded off, 169,000. So how are we doing?

At 31st September 2021 (the half-way point conveniently) the total establishment of the 43 forces was 139,908, an increase to date of 15,655 overall. At the half-way point you have only succeeded in recruiting approx one third of the total necessary to achieve success.

At the end of September 2020 those 43 Forces had a total establishment of 134,879. Now we have 139,908, an increase of 5,029 additional officers. And those 5,029 additional officers are the result of Police Uplift Programme and Traditional recruitment combined. We were recruiting at an average of 8,000 officers in 12 months without the Police Uplift Programme. Something has actually made the situation worse.

If you really need to see how successful it’s been, and what story you should really be telling the public, it’s here.

Police Uplift Programme
Police Service Strength 1979 to 2021

Half way through the Police Uplift Programme and you haven’t even got back to 2008-2010 levels yet. Please don’t talk to me about extra or additional officers. You haven’t even started that yet.

Your Obedient Servant

PS

That chart above coincidentally shows quite well the scale of the damage inflicted by Theresa May and David Cameron

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Police Recruitment – Are We Getting There?

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Just a quick one today, brutal and to the point.

Yes, folks it’s the Police Uplift Programme again, is it on track to deliver? Have I been unfair to Boris and Priti?

For the purposes of ths post, at least, I have tried to be scrupulously fair. These are the assumptions I have worked with.

  • The Home Office stats are correct (accurate)
  • During the lifetime of the Police Uplift Programme (PUP) the full 50,000 officers will be recruited, as referenced here.
  • Traditional recruiting had stayed at it’s previous levels (it didn’t)
  • Police Uplift Programme reaches its target of 20,000 extra officers over 3 years

Below is a chart representing what we actually know so far, based on actual, published figures

Police Uplift Programme
Fig 1. PUP Recruitment so far

To be fair, the PUP has just over 18 months still to run, so it might get there. On 31st March 2020 there were 129,110 officers in England and Wales. 50, 000 more would give us 179,110, assuming that Leavers remained at comparable levels to previous years. Extrapolating PUP’s success so far would give us 179,775, not very far out. A quite acceptable difference.

Police Uplift Programme
Fig 2. Projected Police Service Strength if PUP 100% on target

Are we getting there? Are we currently on track to match that chart above? What is the reality? Well, MY projection, and it is only that, is that the chart will look like this.

Police Uplift Programme
Fig 3. My projection of PUP Recruitment

My prediction is that success continuing at its current rate will lead to a Police Service numbering slightly less than 154,000. This would be the largest Police Service for England and Wales of all time, but still over 20,000 short of what Boris and Priti promised us. I always thought that there 20,000 extra officers was ambitious, where the whole thing is falling down is that recruitment outside of PUP has fallen off the cliff, so we are ain danger of Boris and Priti claiming the credit for recruiting 20,000 officers, but will they truly be extra?

Or have we been sold a PUP?

I forgot to add, I don’t have a degree, I’m not an Academic, so if I’ve got things wrong there’s at least one Academic out there who will put me right.

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