Murders In Larndarn – Under The Microscope

Following on from last week’s post about Murders in London, I hope that this will be the last time I feel compelled to address the subject.  I promise not to buy any more crayons for a while.  London is a big place so I thought it might be useful (and hopefuly interesting) to break the problem down to a more local level.

Borough Totals

Panic ye not, having looked at the above chart, I’m only going to aim my microscope at the top 3 Boroughs, in order, Lambeth, Newham and Southwark.  Anything more would just take too long and send my loyal reader into a deep coma.  However, if you live or work within the M25 feel free to send me a PM/DM/Carrier Pigeon and I’ll try and give you some perpsective about where you live or work.  All applications for more than one Borough must be wrapped around a bottle of fine single malt.


Between 2003 and end of March 2020 there were 146 offences in Lambeth that were classified as Murder.  Given the complexity (and volume) of the data, I believe it works out like this.

Chart 1
Chart 2

Shocking.  Rest your eyes on Chart 2 for a few moments.  Nearly 40% of the people charged with Murder in the Borough of Lambeth between 2003 and 2020 were in the 13 – 19 age group.  40%!  let that sink in.  That is OUR youth.  All of us.

Chart 3

The Afro Caribbean population is the largest group in both Victims and Accuseds.

Chart 4

65% of the persons charged with Murder in Lambeth between 2003 and end of March 2020 were of Afro Caribbean origin.  65%.  A significant majority.


Between 2003 and end of March 2020 there were also 146 offences in Lambeth that were classified as Murder.  Broken down they look like this

Chart 5

Chart 5 once again showing a different profile to Lambeth, the majority of the Accuseds are under 34, but covering a fair spread from 13-34.

Chart 6

Chart 6 shows a somewhat different profile of those being charged with Murder compared with Lambeth.  13 to 19 year olds still form the largest single group (30%) , but 25 to 34 year olds are not far behind on 26%.

Chart 7

Again, Chart 7 shows a somewhat different pattern to Lambeth, Black and White more or less evenly represented, and Asians becoming far more prominent

Chart 8

Chart 8 shows that almost twice as many Black people were charged with Murder than Whites, followed closely by Asians

And finally…………


Slightly lower than the two Boroughs above at 134, not a huge difference over 17 years though.

Chart 9

Chart 9, sadly, clearly shows that the age group with the biggest problem is 13 to 19 year old, closely followed by 25 to 34 year olds.  However I find the 0 to 12 year olds disturbing.

Chart 10

Chart 10 closely resembles Chart 2 (Lambeth) in that the largest age group for people charged with Murder is once again 13 to 19 year olds.

Chart 11

Chart 11 shows that once again, the Ethnicity group most affected by Murder, either as an Accused or a Victim, are the Afro Caribbeans, followed closely by the Whites, very similar yo both Lambeth and Newham.

Chart 12

Chart 12, clearly showing that just over half of the persons charged with Murder in Southwark Borough were of Afro Caribbean origin, approx twice as many as Whites who were allegedly responsible for just over a quarter of the total offences,

What does all of this tell us?  Quite frankly it scares the crap out of me.  Our (predominantly) young men, and in some cases children, are either killing or getting killed on the streets of London.  These are not Domestic Disputes gone wrong they are Gang Related, Drug Related or even Post Code Related.  Party politics need to be cast aside and ALL parties work together to work out what can be done for Children and Young Persons in London (and elsewhere) such that can stop killing each other.

We have heard a lot in the last few months about Black Lives Matter.  Yes they do, ALL lives matter, but sadly a number of members of the Black population don’t seem to have a problem with taking Black lives.  This is WRONG, all killing is wrong obviously, but how can BLM expect society as a whole to take BLM seriously when the Black population don’t stop killing each other?  Anybody with any kind of suggestion whatsoever should pester the Mayor, the Commissioner, your Local Council, anybody who may have an interest and be able to work together with others to stop the killing.

Chart 13

Finally, let’s take a look at the three Boroughs most affected between 2003 and 2020. What werwe the most common methods for killing?  Chart 13 gives us the answer, far and away the most popular are Knives, or similar, followed at some distance by shooting.  Let that sink in for a moment.  Stabbing, slashing or shooting all require a weapon of some kind to be carried through the streets by somebody. Look at the charts again, and then tell me that Stop and Search is bad and should be abandoned.

If you’re still here I thank you

Murders In Larndarn – Some Facts

A few weeks ago I wrote this,

Stops, Knife Crime & BLM. What Is Going On In London?

about murders in London.  I promised to update it when I had the updated info from the Met, well here it is folks.

My question(s) to the Met;

For the years 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 to date could you please supply the following information

1) The total number of murders reported to the MPS for each of the above years.
2) For each year, the total number of Victims and Suspects that were Male
3) For each year, the total number of Victims and Suspects that were under 21
4) For each year, a breakdown of the ethnic origins of Victims and Suspects (totals, not individual offences).
5) For each of the above years, the total number of offences where the weapon used was a knife or similar.

Are you sitting comfortably?  Then I’ll begin.

For 2017-2020 how many murders have there actually been in London?

Reasonably stable, showing a slight increase last year, but seemingly heading for a decrease in 2020, probably an unintended consequence of ‘Lockdown’.

So, who are the victims of these tragedies in London?

Of the total number of Murders reported above, the number of Male victims was as below

It seems that you are disproportionately about 3-4 times more likely to be murdered in London if you are Male, but who are the Murderers, what is the gender bias of those accused of Murder in London?  To be fair I only asked them for data relating to Males, completely forgetting that more than one person can be charged with each Murder.

How many of the Victims and Accused were Under 21?

I find that really quite sad, in a significant percentage of Murders in London the Accused and Victims are under 21.  Our youths are killing each other.  The News Headlines tell us this time and time and time but now we have some long-term stats to demonstrate the reality.

What did they look like? What was the Ethnicity Breakdown of Victims and Accused?  A thorny subject, one traditionally avoided by Politician and Senior Police Officers, but here goes anyway (I’m neither)

No explanation of that diagram needed by me really, more Black than White, and then a smaller section of the other reported Ethnicities.  What about the Accuseds?

Nothing very different there, Black being the largest sector, followed by White.

From the data presented above it is difficult to come to any other conclusion that Black Youths are Killing Black Youths on the streets of London.  That may sound like “Stating the Bleedin’ Obvious” and to a degree it is, but Politicians and Community Leaders need to bite the bullet and DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.  The Police already know what the problem is and they are doing something about it, but that is not very popular amongst the Black Lives Matter movement.  To you I say this, Yes, Black Lives Do Matter, All Lives Matter, but if you want to be taken seriously then you need to stop banging on about Police activity (in particular Stop and Search) and DO SOMETHING about young Black men killing young Black men.

We hear a lot of chatter on the news about Knife crime in London (and elsewhere).  How many of these murders were committed using a Knife or Sharp Object as opposed to the numerous other methods one could employ to kill someone?

There you go, quite damning really. AND ALL OF THOSE WEAPONS HAVE BEEN CARRIED THROUGH OUR STRETS and could potentially have been found during a Stop/Search and who knows how many lives could have been saved.

Helpfully(?) the Met pointed me to a different data source that I had not encountered before, the Homicide Dashboard, which has plain stats going back to 2003.  How does that look?

So what does this tells us?  Not a lot really.  The number of Murders in London steadily decreased until 2015 when it started to increase again, but fortunately we have yet to return to the bad old days of 2003.  As for Victims and Accuseds, this data does not really change much, just makes the numbers bigger.  Afro caribbean and White British being far and away the two largest groups, and Under 25s being significantly more likely to commit a murder, although the average age of Victims has recently come down considerably.

Taken together, these two datasets really do show the nature and scale of Fatal Violence on the streets of our capital.  It is time for ALL of the appropriate bodies to shift the blame from Police etc and onto those ultimately responsible, those that do the killing.  Parliament, the Mayor of London, Commissioner Dick and Community Leaders need to work together and invest in the future of our young folk before they kill each other completely.

Direct Entry Supernintendos & Inspectorators – An Analysis

This week has seen the publication of an assessment of the College of Policing’s Direct Entry Scheme for Superintendents and Inspectors. Before I go any further it is only fair and reasonable to point out that it was written by Isla Campbell and Sarah Colover.  Isla Campbell is Staff Officer to the CEO of the College of Policing, Mike Cunningham,  and Sarah Colover is a/the Senior Research Officer at the College of Policing, a position she has held for a little over 5 years.

You can find it here

I know absolutely nothing more about either of these two ladies.   It might be a fair and unbiased assessment.

I am endebted to ‘the real Sam Vimes’ for taking the time to wade through the treacle that is the College’s own assessment and extract the nuggets.  It has saved me the time of doing it, and I probably couldn’t have done a better job to be honest. For those of you who do Twatter you can find his thread here


For those of you that don’t Twat (or can’t be arsed) I’ll have a go at replicating the (really useful) thread below.

  • So finally the College has released it’s evaluation of Direct Entry and Fast Track. It’s worth analysing some of the facts buried in this report. Shall we take a dive into this headline scheme from the College of Policing….
  • Firstly let me caveat this by saying I have no ill feeling towards the individuals who put themselves forward for these schemes. Some DE are decent, some are awful. They stepped up to join and be counted and that isn’t nothing. This isn’t about whether people have degrees either.
  • It’s also interesting that DE and FT have been lumped together as they are in quite different schemes. But I suspect this is to cover the particular failings of DE by blending it with FT
  • So, this scheme that is supposed to revolutionise Policing, that the College still touts as a success, what has it cost and what have we actually gained? Well the cost is pretty easy to figure. 16 million quid.
  • ‘During 2014/15–2018/19 the spend on the FTDE programmes was almost £16 million. 40 % on DE Superintendent salaries; remaining £9.6 million funded design/delivery of the development programme overall including the core team, recruitment, marketing and business administration’
  • So that’s obviously a fair chunk of money. So what have we got? ‘As of June 2019, 401 individuals had joined a FTDE programme and 196 had successfully completed’ 62 FT External Insp; 98 FT Internal Insp; 25 DE Superintendents, 11 DE Insp) Nationwide, that’s tiny.
  • How about attrition rate? For External FT Insp 18 of 62 quit before completing. So that figure above is actually worse than stated. I haven’t had a chance to fully read the Supt report but I’m told out of 25 only 9 are left. These figures are shocking.
  • So, why is attrition so high? What were the challenges? Well to paraphrase the report. For FT Insp it was the jump to sergeant. Who knew that being a skipper was one of the hardest roles to do without experience. Hint: everyone knew.
  • What else, again, paraphrasing. Candidates were reliant on goodwill of others whilst learning and surviving once in post. Again, who would have thought that the only way many of these people would succeed was with help from people who had done their time. Hint: Everyone
  • What else? ‘Being classed as supernumery (not being on a teams numbers) allowed officers to focus on learning and pursue development opportunities’ Again big shock, not having to do a day job allows you to work on projects and pad your portfolio, WHO KNEW! Hint: know.
  • How about it’s stated aim of increasing diversity? Well as far as I can tell as the figures only show applicants, not numbers who are still in the job (ie they are probably lower) currently 7% of Police are BAME and the much vaunted scheme has raised that to…….9%
  • Obviously this depends on what your goal is. My view is that if you get the same % of people joining as reaching senior rank this shows a level of equality, obviously for some they think an over representation at senior ranks rather than on the shop floor is better. TBH…
  • What is clear in the Met at least is that this aim of increasing diversity with FT at least has failed. I have worked for/with 6 FT Insp. All but 1 were middle class, well educated, white guys in their late 20s to early 30s. Sandhurst types one and all. Not bad ppl at all but…
  • f you took a photo of them you wouldn’t know they weren’t family. Clipped pronunciation, officer class with an eye on SLT, with an average of 2 years experience. Is this who we want in the most critical roles dealing with the gritty realities of UK crime? Is this diversity?
  • At the end, this gem ‘While there is not sufficient interest from forces to offer the programme in 2020, 10 forces have indicated they are likely to participate beyond 2020.’ Translation: oh mate, I’d love to but, would you believe it, I’ve forgotten my wallet. Next time deffo.
  • So out of 30+ only 10 want to continue? That’s near on 70% think your scheme is not worth having? How is that a success? In what possible light is that anything other than a failure?
  • I also think there is an issue with the sample size in drawing conclusions about how good the programme is. Out of more than 30 forces that ran the programme only 10 Chiefs wanted to be interviewed about it. If it created such brilliant talent why so much distancing?
  • So if we split the scheme into DE and FT the DE has certainly not been a storming success and Fast Track? Well what has that shown? That if we improve training, mentoring and opportunities we can develop our people. That’s just cost us 16 million quid to find out?!
  • 16 million quid to get an answer you could have found by asking any skipper or Guvnor up and down the country.
  • Last point. I AM NOT BASHING THE PEOPLE WHO SIGNED UP. Anyone who puts on the blue is a decent individual taking risk to try and serve their communties, however no amount of management speak and cherry picking figures from CoP can cover up that this was utter waste.

Many thanks to ‘Sam’, an almost Forensic dissection of the Direct Entry Scheme to date.  Please feel free to leave your own comments below.

Trial By Media

It doesn’t seem to matter whether it’s Social Media or Main Stream Media, they seem to have taken the place of Courtrooms and Tribunals in our judicial system.  Self-appointed Judge, Jurors and Executioners.

More and more recently both Social Media and MSM have circulated heavily edited, out of context clips of mobile phone footage which claim to show some form of wrong-doing by random Police Officers.

Let me be clear, this is NOT the US of A and I have no problem with, and indeed encourage, Police Officers to be accountable for their actions, but let’s be clear they ARE allowed to use Force in order to restrain, arrest or prevent someone from doing something unlawful  If they stood idly by and watched whilst an armed suspect stabbed an innocent bystander they would be rightly criticised.  However, if they intervene and use a degree of Physical Force to disarm the person and prevent the stabbing there is most certainly someone out there who will film it on their phones (when they could be assisting the officers perhaps), edit the footage, circulate it on Social Media in pursuit of ‘Likes’ and ‘Retweets’ and, increasingly, in an attempt to get the officers to release their suspect and/or get them in trouble with their Professional Standards or Independent Office for Police Conduct.

If they have done something wrong and overstepped the mark, used possibly more force than the minimum required there is an established process for dealing with that.  Take your unedited mobile phone footage and make an official complaint.  It WILL be taken seriously but you shouldn’t expect immediate sanctions of the officer(s).  Your complaint WILL be investigated.  If it is available the officers’ Body Worn Video footage WILL be examined and compared to your complaint.  You WILL be given the opportunity to make an evidential statement formalising what you are alleging, and the officers WILL be given the opportunity to respond to that.

What is NOT acceptable is uploading and circulating heavily edited, and often out of context, video clips to the Court of Twitter, showing offcers struggling with a violent person and trying to incite hatred of the officers.  They are doing their job.  No officer goes to work thinking “I wonder how many necks I can kneel on today”

For the benefit of those few who still do not seem to know, the officers ARE allowed to use force.  It all depends on the circumstances at the time and there is no ‘one size fits all’ solution or response but it IS permissable to shoot somebody dead who is carrying a knife.  That would certainly not be their first option, it would most definitely only arise when every other option had either failed or been deemed inappropriate, but it can be lawful.

Bystanders shouting “Get off his neck” when nothing of the sort is happening serve only to inflame an already tense situation.  People being struggled with shouting “I can’t breathe” can be misleading.  If they can shout “I can’t breathe”, then they can probably breathe.

If you really MUST film these situations then do the honourable thing.  Do not edit the footage and if you feel impelled to do so submit the unedited footage as evidence, for or against the officers.  Or you could consider putting your phone back in your pocket and asking the officers if there is anything you can do to help, but if that isn’t realistic then you could consider getting your phone back out of your pocket and dialling 999, telling them that an officer is struggling with a violent, and possibly armed person, and could do do with some assistance.

The Police in this country are, and must always be, accountable for their actions, but it is becoming far more difficult for them to do they job they are expected, and paid, to do, when they have at least one hand tied behind their backs for fear of appearing in the Court of Twitter.  In the event of a complaint they will ALWAYS be called upon to explain, and hopefully, justify their actions.  If they are deemed to have gone ‘over the top’ there are a variety of sanctions available to be imposed.  If in any doubt scan your newspapers, or wherever else you get your news from, and you will easily find examples of officers either being disciplined or prosecuted for use of excessive force.  It is not a widespread problem, but when it occurs, and is substantiated, then appropriate action IS taken.

Don’t let you and your phone be part of the problem, be part of the solution.  Report the officers’ use of force if you genuinely think it’s OTT, film it if you must, but don’t edit the footage, and don’t circulate on SM just for a few ‘Likes’.

Available Population And Racial Profiling

What on earth is he talking about?  I hear you ask.  WTF is Available Population and what does it have to do with me?  Pour yourself a glass of your favourite tipple, sit back, give me 5 minutes of your time and I will hope to explain it to you.

A couple of high profile incidents recently have vexed me beyond measure, not because they happened but because of the totally negative spin put on them, which is not helped (in my opinion) by certain academics who just love to tread the party line and possibly ignore realities.

Available Population

Dry, numerical analysis of practices such as Stop and Search will always throw up an imbalance.  For example, Many academics will try and convince you that being Black means that your are 6,7 or 8 times more likely to be Stopped and Searched than if you were White.  These claims are predominantly based on the Ethnic Makeup of England and Wales, or sometimes individual cosmopolitan cities like London.  Is that fair?  It could be argued that it is, but as a former Practitioner, rather than Academic, I prefer to say that it is neither fair nor truly representative.

One eminent piece of writing that I urge you to read is The stop and search race myth by Alasdair Palmer which eloquently tells the back story to Theresa May’s infamous condemnation of Stop and Search.  It is a shocking story if true (and I have no reason to doubt it) and shines a light on politicians, their sychophants and the shenanigans of Government.

Alasdair references Available Population in his piece both he and I would make the argument that it is a far more relevant comparison to a local problem than the population of England and Wales.

For example, if you are a Police Officer tasked with tackling, and reducing, a string of Street Robberies committed in the High Street between 3pm and 5pm by 2 or 3 ginger people, 15-17 years old and wearing kilts, why on earth would you Stop and Search a 75 year old Grandma wearing a Packamac (showing my age now)?

The majority of the population of England and Wales is NOT 15-17 ginger kids wearing kilts, so they would appear at face value to be discriminated against.

However, if you look at the High Street between 3pm and 5pm and take a note of the people hanging around, you might just find that 60-70% of them are ginger teenagers wearing kilts and not many 75 year old Grandmas in Packamacs.

THAT is the Available Population, those people who were Available to be stopped in that location at that time.

Is that not a more reasonable comparator?

The police, the Home Office research showed, did not target particular areas for stop and search because they wanted to stop and search people of a particular ethnic group. They chose those areas because that’s where the highest amount of street crime was reported – and stop and search’s primary purpose is to diminish street crimes such as mugging and robbery.

Home Office research that the then Home Secretary (Theresa May) seemingly chose to ignore in favour of her “Stop/Search is bad” speech and accompanying threat to legislate and ‘reform’ it.

Finally, on this topic, another article entitled Disproportionate and Discriminatory: Reviewing the Evidence on Police Stop and Search by Ben Bowling and Coretta Phillips helpfully includes this opinion:-

The advantage of this measure is that it recognises that some demographic groups distinguished on the basis of age, ethnic origin, gender, etc are more likely than others to spend their time at home, at work or are otherwise in private spacewhere they are ‘unavailable’ to be stopped by the police, while others, conversely,are more likely to be ‘available’ by virtue of their demographic characteristics andlifestyle. The Home O⁄ffice research study exploring this comparator concluded that resident populations give a poor indication of the populations available to be searched. Within ‘available populations’, white people tend to be stopped and searched at a higher rate, Asian people tend to be under-represented and black people are sometimes under- and sometimes over-represented.

I’ll leave it here, but I’m convinced that Available Population is a much fairer comparison when it comes to analysising statistics such as Stop and Search etc.

Racial Profiling

Racial Profiling is another habit the Police are frequently, and unfairly, accused of doing.  I refer to my previous comments above, if you were tasked with tackling a string of Street Robberies in the High Street by ginger teenagers wearing kilts, you could rightly be criticised for stopping any 75 year old Packamac wearing Grannies.  They don’t fit the profile of the robbery suspects at all.

However, it becomes far more complex with the occupants of motor vehicles.  My car is most certainly not a ‘Prestige’ brand.  However, as standard from new, it came fitted with ‘Privacy Glass’ in all of the back windows.  This would mean that if I was following my car (from behind obv) I would be completely unable to tell whether the occupants were kilt wearing ginger lads until the vehicle was stopped and the occupants asked to get out.  It would be totally unfair to accuse me of targeting gingers under those circumastances.

In short, it would be impossible to racially profile the occupants of my car, or 100s of thousands of others similarly equipped, fom the rear, be it daylight or night time.  From the front or side you have a good chance but definitely not from the rear if you were following me.

Maybe some folk should consider that before they make outspoken comments about officers trying to do their job.

Without Fear Or Favour

Just a short post today, and then I’m off to take my meds and lie in a darkened room.

Two athletes that I have never heard of got stopped by some TSG officers apparently due to the manner of driving of the car that they were in.  For whatever reason (I wasn’t there) it didn’t go at all well and the two athletes ended up being quite stressed by the whole experience.

As is normal (or maybe compulsory) in these circumatnces, heavily edited footage was circulated on Social Media, but quite why they were filming events before they had even been stopped is a mystery to me.

Eventually they were allowed on their way, and they, together with another former athlete who wsn’t there either, excercised their right to complain across Social Media.

The actions of the officers, the evidence from their Body Worn Video and the footage from Social Media were reviewed by officers from the Met’s Directorate of Professional Standards – TWICE.

Twice they formed the opinion that there had been no Misconduct by the officers.  TWICE.

Now we have the situation where Dame Dick has referred the Force (i.e. the officers involved) to the Independent Office for Polce Conduct for an investigation, even though it has twice been decided that the officers did nothing wrong.

IOPC Regional Director Sal Naseem said the IOPC would look at whether the use of stop and search was appropriate and proportionate in line with approved police policies, adding: “We will also investigate if racial profiling or discrimination played a part in the incident.”

Dame Dick, either personally or via another Senior Officer, then offered a grovelling apology to the athletes for the distress and hurt feelings they had endured at the hands of those poor TSG Officers.

Policing WITHOUT FEAR OR FAVOUR is now effectively dead, certainly in London.  No matter how professionally, patiently and courteously the officers on the streets conduct their duties, hanging over their head is the prospect of a Senior Officer somewhere saying “Our officers did nothing wrong, but we’re frightfully sorry and we will have them investigated.”

How does Policing the streets continue like that?


Stops, Knife Crime & BLM. What Is Going On In London?

Last night my attention was drawn to this tweet from Norman Brennan.

Are things really that dire in Londinium, and if they are, why?

I must warn you, this is going to get very numbery, and I need to try out my new crayons.  Let’s start by having a look at Stop/Search in London over the last 2 years.

So there we see the beginnings of a potential problem, or is it?  There has indeed been a fall in the total number of Stop/Searches, in the order of 13,652 fewer (or 31%).  BUT, the May figure was in itself a spike and the numbers in June have more or less returned to normal.  I have no idea what, specifically, was going on in London during May, but something has caused a spike.  Possibly increased ‘Proactivity’ during a period of Lockdown?  I don’t know, maybe one of the serving officers can tell me.

There has been a lot of fuss in the media over the past few days about athletes getting stopped and the Met were accused of Racism and Racial Profiling.  How do the Stop/Searches over the past 2 years break down?

Well to be fair there have been a few months when the proportion of Black people stopped and searched has gone up, for whatever reason, but for most of the two year period, when one ethnicity gets stopped nore frequently, so do the others. In the very last set of data, June 2020, there were actually1,428 fewer Black people stopped than Whites.  Once again, I cannot provide a reason for that, but that is what the stats show.  Racially prejudiced or Profiled?  I can’t see any evidence to support that accusation.

How do the figures stack up when it comes to Positive Outcomes? i.e. the number of occasions something was found as a result of the Stop and Search?  Any racial bias there?

Interpret that any way you want but when one Ethnic Group rises they all rise, when one falls they all reduce.  In recent months the total number of Positive Outcomes for Black people stopped has been lower than for White people. 

What does the long term pattern over two years show us?

Before I leave Stop/Search and move onto Crimes, for the sake of completeness and transparency, we may as well include age and gender (there are only 2 genders because that all is the Met provide stats for).

Males are far more likely to get Stopped and Searched than Females, and the 15-25 year olds are streets ahead of any other age group.  Not surprising I suppose, there isn’t much chance of having sufficient grounds to Stop and Search many 75 year old Grandmas.

Almost at the end now.  How have the Knife Crime stats looked over the last two years?

The red/orange line representing the 2 year average, it is plain that Knife crime in London has slowed dramatically in 2020, way below average.  However this could be the results of CoronaVirus Lockdowns, increased numbers of Police on the streets or anything else.

Knife Crime with Injury.  A separate set of stats, how does that shape up in London?

Once again, below the red/orange Average line at the moment. 

In conclusion, looking at the bald statistics and with no current, personal knowledge of what is going on, it would appear that there HAS been a large drop in Stop Search during June, but only dropping back to the current baseline figure.  Why the spike in May is currently a mystery.  Has this alleged lack of Police activity caused a massive rise in Knife enabled crimes and Injuries caused by Knives?  I don’t think that the statistics bear that out at all.  There was an increase in both types of Knife Crime in May 2020, but still significantly below the two year average.

Sorry Norman, on the basis of the Met’s published statistics I cannot agree with your Senior Officer.

Whether ANY of this has anything to do with Black Lives Matter I can’t possibly say, but at least we have the cold, dry stats to form an opinion on.

Death By Cop, Are We As Bad As The USA?

Inspired by an article relating to deaths in America resulting from contact with the Police, and egged on by at least one former colleague, I decided to accept the challenge and have a look at what the picture looks like in England and Wales.

There’s any number of categories, but I decided to concentrate on 2 main areas; Death by Shooting, and what is loosely termed Death in Custody.

It’s totally fair to state that Policing in the UK and that in the USA follow two very different models, and there are a huge number more firearms held both lawfully and unlawfully in the USA than there ever will be here.

So, I looked at the data and some very inconvenient, pesky facts soon began staring at me from the screen.  I can only repeat that the numbers are far, far smaller than the equivalent numbers for America, but a pattern is a pattern surely?  The first thing to look at was Fatal Police Shootings.

Fatal Police Shootings England & Wales 2004/05 to 2018/19 by Ethnicity
Fatal Police Shootings England & Wales 2004/05 to 2018/19 by Age Group

I don’t really have to say much about these do I?  Numerically, the largest number of persons shot dead by Police were White, and the Under 21 sector doesn’t feature at all.  The facts would appear to indicate that young black men are not being shot dead in disproportionate numbers by Police. Only one of the above persons was female.

Moving on, Deaths in Custody, what does that look like?

Deaths in Police Custody, England & Wales, 2004/05 to 2018/19 by Ethnicity
Deaths in Police Custody, England & Wales, 2004/05 to 2018/19 by Age Group

My inescapable conclusion is pretty much the same as it is for Shootings, numerically the largest ethnic group is Whites, and the Youth are nowhere near as highly affected as the Middle Aged.  Males outnumbered Females by approx 7:1.  However, how do these figures stack up against the Population as a whole.  Unfortunately the numbers for shootings are so low that they probably are not worth comparing but the chart looks very similar to the Death in Custody figures, so maybe the percentages are not too different.  I could not find a dataset that exactly matched the IOPC data above, and they do not appear to publish that info, but I did find a relevant set of data elsewhere which should give us a reasonable idea as to whether there is any disproportionality at large.

So there you have it Ladies and Gentlemen, White folk are the biggest group here, 85% of Deaths in Custody and 86% of the population, as proportionate as you could possibly get.   The Black population do seem to be slightly over-represented, but not the crazy figures I have heard elsewhere.


Numerically you are far more likely to die after contact with Police or shot by Police if you are white.   The figures is the figures, the Black population are at a slightly raised risk but this is a complex subject and the reasons for that could be many and various.  My best suggestion is that an Armchair Academic with too much time on their hands does a proper, comprehensive study and publish the results without fearing what they might show.

Murder Suspects & Victims – #BlackLivesMatter

I do love a good set of numbers.  You can prove whatever you want with numbers, but, by themselves, they don’t really lie, it’s what you do with them that forms opinion.  Believe me, opinion is truly divided on this one and I’m ready for the abuse and condemnation that will no doubt come my way, my ‘Block’ button is fully serviced and ready for action.

Way back in 2018 Sky News published a rather informative article on the subject, and if it didn’t take so long, I would happily do some work to update it, but as FOI responses, even in normal times, can take anything up to 18 months to come back (yes I’ve had a couple take that long) that will have to wait for a future update.

It has widely been reported for a long time that the black population are disproportionately the victims of murder on the streets of our country, London gets a really bad press for this.  What is not shouted quite so loudly is the ethnicity of Murder Suspects.  Maybe there’s no political mileage in that.  Personally I do, and always have, preferred the reality, be it good, bad or indifferent.

Sky News submitted FOI requests to every Police Force in the England, Scotland and Wales requesting some stats on their murder victims and suspects.

Apparently, back in 2018 London was 60% White, yet only 35% of Murder Victims were white and 24% of Murder Suspects.  However the figures for the country as a whole suggest that maybe London is not completely representative, and maybe that’s not actually a surprise.  In the rest of the country white folk made up 86% of the population, 89% of Murder Victims and 81% of Murder Suspects, suspects and victims being very much in line with the population as a whole.

I’m completely happy to acknowledge that Sky News is my source for the data in the following charts, however, as it was obtained under the Freedom of Information Act it is, by default, in the Public Domain.

When it comes to ages of those concerned, it really does look like London has a problem emerging (has emerged?).  18% of the population of London is under 21, but 32% of the Murder Victims (all races) were under 21 and 45% of Murder Suspects. It looks to me as though the youth of London have running rampant. Yes, I acknowlege that this data is 18 months old, but personally my impression is that the situation has not improved, but I will try and get updated info.

Unsurprisingly possibly, males accounted for 81% of the Murder Victims in London, and 94% of those accused, and yet again the largest group was Black Males.

Other figures for areas of the UK possibly more closely represent the population as a whole.  In the rest of the UK Males comprised 49% of the population, 69% of the victims and 92% of those accused.

So there we have it, or at least how it was in 2018.  I’ll do my very best to obtain up to date and current info, and publish a new post to update this one.  The activists are quite right, Black Lives do Matter, I believe it’s unpopular to say it but All Lives Matter, but London seems to be completely out of step with the rest of the country.  I fully accept that Black Lives Matter everywhere, but it seems to be an inescapable fact that in London Black Lives are mainly being taken by Black People.  Is it racist to say that?  I don’t think so. It’s my interpretation of the figures.  I will make it a priority to obtain up to date info for London at least, the rest of the country seems pretty well balanced.  Not only do I not think it’s racist to  point it out, I also think that ALL agencies on both all sides of the argument need to sit down and thrash this out once and for all, and that includes the Mayor of London, whoever he is.  This CANNOT be simply nothing more than a tool to bash the Police and other agencies with.  Young Black Males are dying, killed, mainly, by young black men (or at least that’s what the figures say to me) but no doubt there is an Academic somewhere out there who will point out where I have gone wrong.  I have said it many times before, I don’t care what colour the victims or suspects are the killing SIMPLY HAS TO STOP.  No more dancing around trying to score points. STOP THE KILLING.

Finally, thank you to my good friend @obbsie for the following two montages of some of the murder victims in London over the last few years.  he did send me a third one representing last year but as it contains names and other personal details I have elected not to use that one.

A third of police officers will have less than three years’ experience by 2023

It isn’t very often that I rely on the Daily Mail for my source material, but on this occasion I was delighted to find Mainstream Media highlighting an issue I had identified and pointed out months ago.

The full headline reads

A third of police officers will have less than three years’ experience by 2023 as forces scramble to replace officers who have left since 2010

Well now, we all know why officers have been “leaving” in droves since 2010, the legacy of Camoron and Dismay.

Back in September 2019 I wrote this

Policing Experience – Is There Another Crisis Waiting To Happen?

I won’t replicate it here, you can follow the link and see what I made of it, together with the odd pretty chart. I often get told that I am being “negative” because I don’t believe that Boris’ 20,000 extra recruits will save the day. My estimate was that we need to recruit 40-45,000 to make an overall increase of 20,000 due to the numbers leaving, at approx 7,000 per year. The Mail believes that we need to recruit 53,000 overall to achieve that goal.

One thing that is for certain, this is the direct result of the actions and policies of Camoron, Dismay and their respective governments, INCLUDING Boris, who consistently voted in favour of the cuts, and never forgetting the Tory MPs who actually cheered when the vote was passed totally stuffing the pay of Police, NHS and the like. They actually cheered.

I have said it before and I will no doubt say it again, the Conservatives under Camoron and Dismay inflicted untold damage on the Public Sector. Come the General Election the population were so blindsided by Boris and Brexit that they voted the party of cuts back in with an increased majority. Let that sink in. As far as they are concerned their previous actions have been validated.