Murders In Larndarn – Under The Microscope

Following on from last week’s post about Murders in London, I hope that this will be the last time I feel compelled to address the subject.  I promise not to buy any more crayons for a while.  London is a big place so I thought it might be useful (and hopefuly interesting) to break the problem down to a more local level.

Borough Totals

Panic ye not, having looked at the above chart, I’m only going to aim my microscope at the top 3 Boroughs, in order, Lambeth, Newham and Southwark.  Anything more would just take too long and send my loyal reader into a deep coma.  However, if you live or work within the M25 feel free to send me a PM/DM/Carrier Pigeon and I’ll try and give you some perpsective about where you live or work.  All applications for more than one Borough must be wrapped around a bottle of fine single malt.

Lambeth

Between 2003 and end of March 2020 there were 146 offences in Lambeth that were classified as Murder.  Given the complexity (and volume) of the data, I believe it works out like this.

Chart 1
Chart 2

Shocking.  Rest your eyes on Chart 2 for a few moments.  Nearly 40% of the people charged with Murder in the Borough of Lambeth between 2003 and 2020 were in the 13 – 19 age group.  40%!  let that sink in.  That is OUR youth.  All of us.

Chart 3

The Afro Caribbean population is the largest group in both Victims and Accuseds.

Chart 4

65% of the persons charged with Murder in Lambeth between 2003 and end of March 2020 were of Afro Caribbean origin.  65%.  A significant majority.

Newham

Between 2003 and end of March 2020 there were also 146 offences in Lambeth that were classified as Murder.  Broken down they look like this

Chart 5

Chart 5 once again showing a different profile to Lambeth, the majority of the Accuseds are under 34, but covering a fair spread from 13-34.

Chart 6

Chart 6 shows a somewhat different profile of those being charged with Murder compared with Lambeth.  13 to 19 year olds still form the largest single group (30%) , but 25 to 34 year olds are not far behind on 26%.

Chart 7

Again, Chart 7 shows a somewhat different pattern to Lambeth, Black and White more or less evenly represented, and Asians becoming far more prominent

Chart 8

Chart 8 shows that almost twice as many Black people were charged with Murder than Whites, followed closely by Asians

And finally…………

Southwark

Slightly lower than the two Boroughs above at 134, not a huge difference over 17 years though.

Chart 9

Chart 9, sadly, clearly shows that the age group with the biggest problem is 13 to 19 year old, closely followed by 25 to 34 year olds.  However I find the 0 to 12 year olds disturbing.

Chart 10

Chart 10 closely resembles Chart 2 (Lambeth) in that the largest age group for people charged with Murder is once again 13 to 19 year olds.

Chart 11

Chart 11 shows that once again, the Ethnicity group most affected by Murder, either as an Accused or a Victim, are the Afro Caribbeans, followed closely by the Whites, very similar yo both Lambeth and Newham.

Chart 12

Chart 12, clearly showing that just over half of the persons charged with Murder in Southwark Borough were of Afro Caribbean origin, approx twice as many as Whites who were allegedly responsible for just over a quarter of the total offences,

What does all of this tell us?  Quite frankly it scares the crap out of me.  Our (predominantly) young men, and in some cases children, are either killing or getting killed on the streets of London.  These are not Domestic Disputes gone wrong they are Gang Related, Drug Related or even Post Code Related.  Party politics need to be cast aside and ALL parties work together to work out what can be done for Children and Young Persons in London (and elsewhere) such that can stop killing each other.

We have heard a lot in the last few months about Black Lives Matter.  Yes they do, ALL lives matter, but sadly a number of members of the Black population don’t seem to have a problem with taking Black lives.  This is WRONG, all killing is wrong obviously, but how can BLM expect society as a whole to take BLM seriously when the Black population don’t stop killing each other?  Anybody with any kind of suggestion whatsoever should pester the Mayor, the Commissioner, your Local Council, anybody who may have an interest and be able to work together with others to stop the killing.

Chart 13

Finally, let’s take a look at the three Boroughs most affected between 2003 and 2020. What werwe the most common methods for killing?  Chart 13 gives us the answer, far and away the most popular are Knives, or similar, followed at some distance by shooting.  Let that sink in for a moment.  Stabbing, slashing or shooting all require a weapon of some kind to be carried through the streets by somebody. Look at the charts again, and then tell me that Stop and Search is bad and should be abandoned.

If you’re still here I thank you

Reform Is Down, Crime Is Working

Well, honestly, it makes much more sense than the Crime Is Down, Reform Is Working mantra that we’re used to getting rammed down our throats doesn’t it?

On the matter of “REFORM” my view is clear, I’ve said it before and I’m sure I’ll have to say it again, but ‘Reform’ is simply NOT working, and it is not working on so many levels.

The Oxford Dictionary defines Reform:-

Make changes in (something, especially an institution or practice) in order to improve it.

Please tell me in which areas the Police Service has been improved because I’m struggling to think of one this morning.  Which other Public Service has been improved by Tory Reforms?  Again I’m struggling.  NHS, Fire & Rescue Service, Coastguard, Education, Justice have all been hugely improved by the Tories since 2010.  Armed Forces?  Don’t get me going on that one, suffice to say I don’t believe that successive governments have invested sufficiently in the Armed Forces.

There are some things in life that the government (of any hue) simply has to afford.

For as long as I can remember we have been subjected to politician after politician, PCC after PCC telling us that Crime Is Down.

Is it?

The government’s current favourite, the Crime Survey for England and Wales has this to say about Police Recorded Crime

The police recorded 4.5 million offences in the year ending March 2016, an annual rise of 8%. However, this series is not considered a reliable indicator of trends in crime; most of the latest rise is thought to be due to improved crime recording practices and processes leading to a greater proportion of reports of crime being recorded in the last year than in the previous year.

So, Front Line Police say that Crime Is Up, but we don’t like that so we’ll go with the CSEW version

Latest estimates from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), the best measure of crime trends for the population and offences it covers, showed a 6% fall in the number of incidents against adults for the survey year ending March 2016 (6.3 million, compared with 6.8 million in the previous survey year).

So, let me get this straight, the CSEW figures show that crime is at a level approx 50% higher than Police Recorded Crime but because it shows a small dip, and Police Stats can’t be trusted, the CSEW version suits their soundbites better.

How does “Crime is down but it’s much higher than the Police think it is” sound?

My final Gripe Of The Day is violent crime in London and the Police & Government response to it.

The charts below relate to the last 12 months, see what you think

KNIFE CRIME


GUN CRIME


STOP AND SEARCH


In response to such awful gun and knife crime figures, what do we do?  We reduce Stop and Search by about 70% is what we do.

The blue line looks better, we’ve improved our arrest rate from 8.3% to 19%, well done everyone.  By my lack of a degree reckoning 8.3% of 533 thousand is about 44,000.  Whereas 19% of 160 thousand is about 30,000.  Not looking so impressive now is it?  Contrary to how the chart looks, arrests are actually DOWN by about HALF.

What do the government have to say about that?  Absolutely NOTHING.  They have a vision for how the Police Service should look and what it should do and they’re not going to deviate from that, and heaven forbid that should actually listen to the practitioners.

So, YES, Reform IS Down and Crime IS Working, particularly gun and knife crime.  How on earth can they just sit quietly and ignore all those shattered or damaged lives?

This tweet just about says it all for me