Over time we get drip fed stories and so-called facts to such an extent that you miss the point entirely over time or you become immune and apathetic to what is happening around you. I am aware that Murder in the capital seems to going stratospheric so I thought I’d take a simple look back and try to establish the true situation.
The overall picture looks like this
It seems blatantly obvious to me that the Met had a handle on the problem and the numbers were steadily reducing year on year until 2014, after that they were, and seemingly still are, increasing year on year, back up again. Not quite as bad as they were in 2006, but we must not be complacent.
By Borough, the problem looks like this;
Seems like the best place to live is Heathrow, but I’d give Lambeth, Newham and Southwark a swerve definitely.
Whatever could have happened in 2014 to make the number of Murders go back up again, and reverse a successful trend? This happened.
And I am determined that the use of stop and search must come down, become more targeted and lead to more arrests.
Theresa May’s speech to the Police Federation in 2014 is what happened. I accept that numbers were already reducing due to pressure from Police Management mainly, but it certainly went down after her speech, at a time when Murders and Stabbings were on the ascendent again.
No wonder really that Murders and Knife Crime are going through the roof. Personally (and you don’t have to agree) I hold Mrs May personally responsible for young kids, black and white, but mainly black, being slaughtered on our streets over the past few years. I am NOT an Academic but Stop/Search comes down and Murder and Crime in General go up. If there is not a direct correlation please explain it to me.
One last thought for the day, what else has happened since Theresa May’s speech in 2014? This has happened
The picture is no diffeent outside London either
2014 was a year to remember inside and outside of London.
Does that sound familiar? How long have we been hearing that particular mantra? By my reckoning we’ve been subjected to it since 2014.
Is Crime down? I leave it to others to decide if Police Reform is working, but my personal opinion is that it has been an unmitigated, ill thought-out, vengeful policy that has far from worked. The words “unmitigated” and “disaster” spring readily to my mind.
To return to crime, for the last four years whilst the government have been trotting out that tired old mantra crime (as per the statistics published by the Home Office) looks like this
From 2014, the year Mike Penning uttered those immortal words, crime has inexorably risen. In 2017/18 it was substantially higher than 2010 when Cruella’s Crusade first began, yet we currently have 21,000 fewer officers to contend with rising crime, not to mention the other demands upon Police resources that are nothing to do with crime.
Whilst I was immersed in the Home Office crime stats I thought I would have a look and see what the scale was, nationally, of officers being assaulted and injured in the course of their duties. I was shocked to find that those figures were not available until 2017/18. This is actually a shortcoming of ALL governments, but it was rectified last year. However, whilst I was rummaging I came across a set of stats that might make you smile. For years and years, governments of all hues have totally ignored Assaults on Police Occasioning Injury. But they did regularly retain, and publish, the number of Unnatural Sexual Offences coming to the attention of Police. To be more important than injured officers the numbers must be huge, surely. Well, no actually.
It seems to have peaked at about 40 offences in 2016/17, whereas the first year of publishing Assaults on Police Causing Injury there were over 8,000 offences recorded in England and Wales.
It makes my heart flutter to know that keeping an eye on the rise of Unnatural Sexual Offences has been far more important to successive governments than injured Police Officers.
The serious point is, why have successive governments totally ignored Assaults on Police causing injuries, yet they have collected and published stats relating to significantly less prevalent and less serious offences? In an era when government openly criticise Police for ‘fudging’ Recorded Crime stats, why have successive governments constantly changed which, and how, crimes are counted? Total Crime should be exactly that.
The government definitely prefers stats from the Crime Survey of England and Wales because that survey frequently shows that overall crime is falling. What they don’t tell you is that not every category of crime is included in the survey, plus the resulting crime levels may be falling, but are considerably higher (by a few million) than Police Recorded Crime. Cake and Eat It comes to mind.
It seems that it is the government that needs reforming rather than the Police Service (and those deviant sexual offenders 😱😱)
Crime is Down (in an upwardly sort of way), Police Reform is actually a vendetta
Fortuitously there has just been a release of Police Manpower (sorry, I still call it that, no offence intended) and the latest Crime Data for England and Wales.
Much has been made of these latest figures both in the Press and on Social Media. This Crime has gone up by this percentage and all that sort of stuff. Very useful, it really is, but if you want to look at more than just the big, bold headlines your head will soon be spinning.
Well, I still have some crayons left, none of the real academics have tried to disable my abacus or nick my pencil box, so I thought I’d try and make sense of the bigger picture and how it affects both Policing and the Populus in 2018.
Firstly, how many Police Officers are there in England and Wales since the disastrous election of 2010?
Not including the British Transport Police (for no particular reason other than they are shown separetely in the stats) it looks like this
It’s all well and good producing a pretty chart I hear you cry, what does that actually LOOK like? It’s a tad worse after this week’s figures release but basically it looks like all the areas coloured pink having NO Police Officers whatsoever, not a single one.
It doesn’t look very good does it, but we keep hearing that Crime is Down and Police Reform is working, so how are the much-reduced Police Officers coping with crime and stuff?
My word, it looks to me like a few years after Theresa May’s cuts started to bite, Overall Crime started to increase.
Violent Crime, we’ve heard a lot about that recently, how does that look?
The reason for the bizarre drop in the middle of the graph of that the Home OPffice keep changing exactly which crimes they want to list, and a lot of the lesser asssaults, whilst recorded by the Police, did not feature in the Home Office stats, but now they do again. And they complain about the Police fudging stats eh?
So, we have had 8 years now of #Austerity and #PoliceReform. What does that look like? How do the numbers stack up after 8 years?
Apologies if you find the chart above a bit ‘busy’ but basically Police Numbers down, Stop and Search down has resulted in Total Crime and Violent Crime going up. Where will it all end? Theresa May and her colleagues must be really proud of themselves. There you have it encapsulated in one chart, the state of (Crime and) Policing in 2018.Last Updated on
As you are all aware, I am not an Academic, and I do not possess a degree in anything. However, spurred on by this warm weather and an increasing foreboding of doom, I dusted down my crayons, and with a little help from my 4 year old grand-daughter, I managed to produce some nice pretty pictures, based on the premise that the first duty of any government is to protect its citizens.This doesn’t often happen, but I will shut up for a while and let the music and the pictures fill in the story.
Hmm, it seems as if most of the violent crimes were on their way down prior to about 2011/12 and then started to go up again. I wonder what happened to cause that? I’d better get my crayons out again and see if the whole of England and Wales looks the same.
Before I do there’s a few things about these piccies that you might think I’ve forgotten. Despite slating the Police for the manner in which they record crime, the Home Office, amazingly, have never published data for Possession of Knives or Firearms prior to 2008, at least not publicly. They do not publish figures for Assault on a Police Officer causing Injury. They did not publish data for ANY Assault causing Injury prior to 2012 Why would that be? Not just the Tories, Labour didn’t do it either. The stats for 2017/2018 are not yet publicly available.
Anyway, back to my crayons, the pictures for the whole of England and Wales.
Looking at all of these pretty, colourful pictures it does indeed seem that most, if not all, of the columns start to rise 2012/2013 What on earth could be causing that?
What about England and Wales, does that look any different?
So, we can see that the MEt has (to now) been sheltered from the worst of the cuts, but more are coming in the next two years. They have still ended up with a net loss however. England and Wales as a whole has seen quite a sharp falling off of officer numbers since 2010. Could anything else be a factor?
For whatever reason, Stop and Search in London has fallen sharply since 2008, in 2017 the lowest for a decade by far. How does the rest of the country fare?
One more for luck, how does Total Crime look like against Total Stop/Search?
So, there you have it ladies and gents, girls and boys. Are the government protecting its citizens? Are they complying with their ‘First Duty’? More importantly, how safe are our streets. Just a wild thought I know, but getting those 21,000 Police Officers back might help, but the only problem there is that there is no Magic Bobby Tree, Even if the government did the most massive u-turn in their history, they cannot replace the lost skills and experience. No wonderful Graduate Entry schemes, no Direct Entry Insp.Superintendent/Detective schemes can fix this. The Police Service is broken. Can we fix it? I don’t know. I hope so, and I will carry on writing posts such as this til I either stop breathing or the government u-turns. I can’t change their minds, but YOU can. Every one of you joined together can lobby your MP. Send him/her a copy of this post if you haven’t got time to write. I don’t care how you do it, but the swell of public opinion and support is our best chance (in my humble opinion)
I shall now put my crayons away until at least next week, thank you for your patience.
The Police have lost control of the streets. There, I’ve said it.
Not everywhere, of course, but cities mainly, London definitely, but it could apply literally anywhere.
It has been obvious for a while now but the government have just sat quietly and said nothing. Only that isn’t quite true is it? The government have said something. In 2014, i think it was, the then Home Secretary Theresa May instructed the Police to cut down on Stop and Search. Instructed. That must rank as the biggest political interference in Policing in modern times.
Various pretty graphs have been drawn over the years to try and make it look like the policy was working, but in reality Stop and Search fell off the cliff after 2014. Fewer people were getting stopped (all reasons) and fewer people were getting arrested as a result of those Stops. Mayor Khan’s office tried to make it look like the policy was working and that more people were being arrested, but they were just playing with percentages.
Knife crime up 21%
Robbery up 29%
Vehicle theft up 18%
With figures like these how can you pretend that we have control of our streets.? Are these are NATIONAL figures, not just London.
BBC News ran an item on Knife Crime in Tuesday’s evening News
I would go so far as to say that the government in general, and Theresa May in particular, are directly responsible for this state of affairs.
in 2010, under the direction of Theresa May, the Home Office embarked upon a systematic culling of the Police Service in the name of ‘Austerity’. I don’t think that anybody outside of the Palace of Westminster believes that one any more.
Theresa May cannot claim to be unaware of the effects of her vicious cuts, she has been told, often. However in 2015 she responded to this enlightenment like this
you warned that the police – and the public – were being put in danger in 2001, 2004 and 2007. The truth is that crime fell in each of those years, it’s fallen further since – and our country is safer than it has ever been…………
……….for your sake and for the thousands of police officers who work so hard every day – this crying wolf has to stop.
The country is safer than it has ever been? Try telling that to the parents of our dead children Mrs May. And many of them were just that, children. Crying Wolf? Safer? 4 young people in London lost their lives to knives on New Years Eve/Day alone.
How can you say such things? How can you now remain quiet?
Before I leave Knives and Stop & Search, a senior officer at Scotland Yard received a Knighthood this year on the back of a 70% reduction in Stop & Search. How is that justified in the light of the slaughter around us?
Moped Crime and Pursuits – before I make any comment all, I fully realise that pursuits in particular are a highly contentious, and current, topic. Any collision where an innocent member of the public is injured or, worse, killed is highly regrettable, and preferably avoided. However, the Police still have a job to do and sometimes that will involve pursuing vehicles. More often than not the officers will be unclear on why the driver has decided to make off from Police until it is stopped. Sometimes a collision will occur. Some times the driver of the car being pursued will exceed his/her capabilities and crash. Hopefully no innocent parties will be injured. HOWEVER, the driver of the car/moped etc being pursued ALWAYS has the option to STOP. This would result in him/her being arrested in a dignified manner with full recognition of the driver’s rights. Surely this outcome is preferable to risking death or injury? Many seem to think not.
Moped crime in London has absolutely rocketed although it is not an offence restricted to London alone. Once again, how can we claim to have control of the streets with crimes at these levels? I’m sure that somebody will let me know what the latest instructions are, but I’m absolutely certain that the Police Drivers dread being faced with the dilemma of stopping a moped.
Gun Crime – up 20%. Wether it be for an Armed Robbery, a Terrorist Attack or a simple Murder all of those firearms are carried through the streets at some point. Once again, how can we claim to be controlling the streets with a 20% increase in Gun Crime nationally?
Acid Attack – these also appear to be on the rise with a further 300 (approx) being reported in the first 6 months of 2017. Like firearms, these acid attacks are either committed in the street, or the acid is carried through the streets, once again casting doubt on our ability to claim control.
County Lines – A brief and basic description of how County Lines work is contained within the very short video below. Violence between gang members can be extreme, a recent dispute saw one male have his hand chopped off with a machete and both legs broken. Young children are used as Mules or Dealers including one young chap who operated in the vicinity of a school miles from his home but was wearing the school uniform of the school where he was operating.
Racism – an easy claim for observers and community ‘leaders’ such as Lee Jasper is that the Police are Racist. Maybe some are. I wouldn’t be surprised to find that out of 122,000 officers a few bad apples were Racist, but I am absolutely certain that the number is not large. According to Sir Robert Peel “The people are the Police and the Police are the people” (see below). This almost guarantees that in any given Police Force you will have some of everything, because the Police are drawn from the public, and the public consists of all types.
The seventh Peelian Principle is the one I refer to above, it simply states
7 – To maintain at all times a relationship with the public that gives reality to the historic tradition that the police are the public and that the public are the police, the police being only members of the public who are paid to give full-time attention to duties which are incumbent on every citizen in the interests of community welfare and existence.
So, no different to anybody else then.
The first Peelian Principle is the one we were all given to remember and repeat ‘parrot fashion’ during Initial Training. Paraphrased it says “The primary objective of an efficient Police is the prevention of crime………”, or as Peel had it
1 To prevent crime and disorder, as an alternative to their repression by military force and severity of legal punishment.
Which brings me to the end of this tome, which I hope you have found useful and not too dry. Number One – “To prevent Crime and Disorder”. With crime, or least certain types of crime undisputably rising, and Police Numbers undisputably falling, and the population constantly growing;
How do the Police Prevent Crime and Protect the Public?
Answers on a postcard please. There is a #CrisisInPolicing but there is NOT a #BottomlessBobbyBox. I heard tell recently of a Sergeant, in a large urban Force, who paraded 4 Constables (yes 4) and had 3 pages of Incidents to assign. What should he have done?Last Updated on
Much has been made in recent months of Acid Attacks and Moped Crime, not exclusively, but mainly, in London. The media have (rightly in my opinion) made much of it, but nobody seemed to be putting any numbers to the problems. Never one to shirk away from numbers I did some digging.
Acid attacks across London are on the increase, from 259 in 2011 to 431 in 2016 with the London Borough of Newham consistently top of the League Table.
For the 2017 Calendar Year there were 149 offences recorded up to 31st May.
Moped Enabled Crime
It’s fair to say that there has been an absolute explosion of ‘Moped Crime’ across London. In 2011 there were a ‘mere’ 365 offences recorded in the Calendar Year, rising dramatically to more than 17,600 in the first 9 months of 2017.
The London Borough of Newham has had a reprieve but the new ‘Super Borough’ of Camden and Islington has taken a right hammering this year.
Two questions immediately come to mind.
How has this crime flourished so dramatically this year without the Home Office getting involved and insisting that something is done, with extra funding being being made available to tackle this extraordinary rise in crime?
Why is it that whenever the Metropolitan Police use clearly defined, and approved, tactics to try and deal with the problem they are lambasted by Press, Armchair Experts and even the occasional politician? Talk about a No Win Situation.
In the background we have the omni-present Tory Mantra so beloved of Theresa May, Amber Rudd and Damian Wassisname telling us that Crime Is Down.
Well, is it?
Don’t just take the word of a dinosaur, the figures above have been extracted from the Met’s Crime Recording system, CRIS. I haven’t even retyped them. Official figures.
And this monstrous explosion of certain crimes has all taken place under the guardianship of the Conservative Party.
They have no right to call themselves the Party of Law and Order. They are a disgrace, spouting out that same old cracked record trying to assure us that all is well.
If any other Party had presided over a ‘decrease’ in crime from 365 to (probably) almost 20,000 annually the Tories would be baying for blood.
Surely it is time for the gloves to come off the Metropolitan Police Service and witness the rebirth of the Metropolitan Police Force? The Met is full of lads and lasses perfectly willing to tackle this explosion, but their morale has been shattered by the Cuts, threatened job losses, and fear that the IPCC will be on their backs if poor Johnny were to fall off his moped.
Dear reader I am typing this slowly as I know it’s a dry, boring subject that most of us don’t bother with, but unfortunately for you, I do. You may want to make yourself a cup of strong coffee before you read any further.
I have been looking at the strength of the various Police Forces post 2010. The Home Office and HMIC like to quote these numbers as “officers per 100,000 head of population”. I took a small liberty with this and I used “Constables per 100,000 head of population” as I don’t really care how many top-floor oiks there are, it’s the ground floor that interfaces with the public in the important ways.
Having aquired all the relevant data from official government statistics I laid it out and, unsurprisingly, EVERY single Force now has fewer Constables per 100,000 head of population, but the spread is not fair and even. Some have lost a far bigger percentage than others.
The luckiest Forces have only lost about 2% of their Constables (Surrey) , but others have lost as many as 30% (Greater Manchester, Nottinghamshire, West Midlands). The National Average being 20%.
I then thought that I would look and see if this had had a disproportionale or discernible effect on Crime Levels.
This was where I noticed the first anomaly. The government quotes Police Officer numbers as “Officers per 100,000 head of population” as I mentioned above.
I soon realised that Police Force Crime Ratesare quoted a “Crimes per 10,000 head of population”. Now I know that we’re all capable of putting an extra zero on the end and making them comparable, but it could be deemed a bit more devious than that.
Measure Police Officers per 100,000 head of population gives you a bigger number, psychologically more acceptable. Dare I say “a good thing”. Makes it sound like more officers than if expressed the other way.
Measure Crimes as per 10,000 head of population gives you a smaller number, more acceptable and another “good thing”. People might even think that crime is down.
When the post 2010, reduced, Police Force numbers are compared to the Crime Rates, MOST Forces have managed to make noticeable reductions in these crime rates. The reductions go from 2.3% (Cleveland and Northamptonshire), to 29.7% (Cumbria) with the National Average being 11.6%. However some have suffered increased Crime Rates between 3.4% (Merseyside) and 22.2% (Staffordshire).
The above results were judged against Office of National Statistics / Crime Survey of England & Wales data, the government’s preferred ‘official’ datase, and definitely caused me to wonder why two datasets that are obviously intertwined are expressed differently by a factor of 10. If you wanted your audience to understand would you not use the same units for both datasets, thus enabling an obvious and instant comparison?
I did wonder what the same picture would look like, based on ‘out of favour’ Police Recorded Crime statistics.
Using the ONS/CSEW Statistics only 7 Forces did not show a reduction in the Crime Rate post 2010. Using Police Recorded Crime 24 of them (more than half) failed to show a reduction in the Crime Rate.
Those demonstrating a reduction varied between 2.7% (Nottinghamshire) and 22% (Lincolnshire). The National Average is an INCREASE of 2.7% per 100,000 head of population. A quite different picture I’m sure you will agree,
My dislike of the ONS/CSEW methodology and resultant statistics is well know to a lot of you, and I know there are many academics out there who have tried to explain it to me and persuade me, but I’m a stubborn old git and I prefer things that can be counted rather than estimated. Police Recorded Crime has been under the spotlight for a few yerars now, and I refuse to believe that they are not somewhere acceptably close to accurate, although CSEW figures and Recorded Crime do sometimes include different categories for some bizarre reason that maybe the Home Office could explain to us.
I have deliberately excluded Fraud, Cyber Crime and Anti-Social Behaviour from both sets of figures.
The ONS/CSEW figures are consistently higher than Recorded Crime figures but their behavious is quite different. They show a ‘decrease’ in crime which I’m sure many of you do not recognise. They also paint a picture of most Forces winning the fight against crime and bringing it down.
Police Recorded Crime figures are significantly lower than the ONS/CSEW stats so favoured by government. However, they show that MOST Forces are failing to reduce the Crime Rate.
This is most definitely NOT a criticism of the Police Forces, they have suffered real cuts as referred to above. The government, in the form of the Home Office, is spinning the figures to make Police Numbers appear better, crime rates appear lower and totally disguises how effective the Forces are being at combatting Crime Rates.
It is time for the government to stop crying “Crime is Down. Police Reform is Working” and deal with the reality of the situation.
Just for the sake of reassurance every single number I have used has been extracted from an official government dataset. No guessing and estimating here ONS.
Finally, the Force that lost the biggest percentage of its Constables has experienced an INCREASE in crime of 5.2% against the Crime Survery figures and 16.5% against Police Recorded Crime.
Smoke and Mirrors have got nothing on our government.Last Updated on
In a few days time I should have a set of figures telling us exactly what the size of the Knife Crime problem is across England and Wales. While I’m waiting for the last few miscreants to remember to send me some data, or protest that they don’t have a Knife Crime problem, I thought I would plunder the Mayor of London’s Data Store and draw some pretty pictures of the scale of weapons generally in our capital.
As the data goes back to 2008 I thought “why not nick it all?” look at the long term situation and how it might have changed. The categories covered everything from Dog Bites to Murder but I just concentrated on my current hobby horse and guns while I was at it.
As we all know, Sir Bernie Hogan-Who ordered a reduction in Stop and Search in London after the 2011 riots in order to try to build trust between the police and London’s communities. Did that work? We shall see.
Knife and Gun Crime between 2008 and 2016 looks like this.Reasonably constant over 8-9 years, not a huge increase but certainly hasn’t gone down much.
Contrast this with Stop and Search over the same period.
That has MOST DEFINITELY gone down
Because we can, why don’t we have a look at staffing levels within the Met over that period.
Police Officers down a little bit, but noticeable drops in Specials, PCSOs and Police Staff.
Finally, total recorded crime, how much has that reduced?
A slight dip around 2012-2013 but most definitely on the way back up would you say?
Don’t have nightmares, do sleep well.
Back soon with England and Wales Knife Crime figures. I bet you can hardly wait.
The incumbent Police and Crime Commissioner, Ms Julia Mulligan has made great play on Facebook about the latest set of Crime Stats from the Office of National Statistics showing that North Yorkshire has the lowest crime rate in England.
Well, I never could resist a challenge, I have been known to mull over dry old figures once or twice before, so how does her claim stack up?
She begins her Facebook post like this
Official figures showing North Yorkshire has the LOWEST crime rate in England demonstrate my record of delivery as Police & Crime Commissioner.
One of her claims is true, crime in North Yorkshire has only risen by 5% compared to 8% nationally. Crime is UP? Surely some mistake there? I presume Reform is working.
Most of the credit can be attributed to a decrease in Theft (down 1%), Theft From Person (down 9%), Other Theft (down 8%), Drugs (down 7%) and Possession of Weapons (down 22%). The last two can presumably be explained by the lower number of officers on the streets and the Home Secretary’s desired practice of reducing Stop and Search, so less opportunity to find these items.
The other side of the coin is not so rosy it would seem.
Violence Against The Person (UP 22%), Violence With Injury (UP16%), Violence Without Injury (UP 31%), Sexual Offences (UP 18%), Robbery (UP 24% against a national DECREASE of 2%), Domestic Burglary (UP 4% against a national decrease of 3%), Non Domestic Burglary (UP 4% against a national decrease of 4%). These are not my categories but the ones quoted by ONS.
So, Ms Mulligan, returning to your Facebook post you seem to be quite happy to take the credit for North Yorkshire having the lowest crime rate in England( 45.1 crimes per 1,000 of the population)
………demonstrate my record of delivery as Police & Crime Commissioner.
My plan for the future will build on this success – that’s why I’m asking you to make me your FIRST Choice for PCC on May 5th.
so I presume you will be equally happy to take the credit for all those offences which are UP. Violence, Sexual Offences, Robbery, Burglary all UP. This is the success you will be building on.
No Crime is a good thing but as you know Crime is categorised Minor and Major. Virtually all of the crimes that are UP are in the Major Category. I’m guessing that’s not actually a good thing.
Sadly the only conclusion that I can come to is that this is Party Political Spin. Mrs May and her office keep telling us that Crime is Down, Reform is Working. Well, even the lauded ONS statistics show us that All Crime (excluding Fraud) is up by 8% year on year.
Could candidates please abstain from spin and just give us the TRUTH, all of it, not just some of it?